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  • short-term volatility reflects uncertainty regarding monetary policy while long-term volatility is most closely associated with uncertainty regarding the real economy and inflation.

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  • Effective duration can be used to accurately measure the risk associated with parallel yield curve change

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    Pure expectations hypothesis
    純粋期待仮説(Pure expectations hypothesis)とは […]

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    Interpolated rate = rate for lower bound + (interpolated rate − lower bound)(higher bound rate − lower bound rate) / ( upper bound − lower bound)

    Swap sprea […]

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    build-up method=the risk-free rate+ the equity risk premium+the small stock premium+a company-specific risk premium+industry risk premium

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    The Excess Earnings Method

    w:working capital A ×rA
    f:fixed assets B × rB
    ee:excess earnings = E − w − f

    V:value of intangible assets={ee×(1+b)}/(r-g)

    firm value = V+working capital+fixed assets

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    EV = market value of common stock + market value of preferred equity + market value of debt + minority interest – cash and investments

    earnings surprise = reported EPS − expected EPS

    standardized unexpected ear […]

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    RI = Earnings(t時) − r × Book(t−1時)

    PV of continuing residual income in year T-1
    PV  = RI/(1+r−ω)
    ω=persistence factor,0≤ω≤1
    RIはTの時

    The present value of continuing residual income
    ={(P−B) +RI}/(1+r)

  • The present value of continuing residual income
    ={(P−B) +RI}/(1+r)

  • CFA2 residual income

    PV of continuing residual income in year T – 1 = RIT/(1+r−ω)
    ω=persistence factor,0≤ω≤1

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